We're over halfway through the year, is this the Oscar best animated feature lineup?
What else has a real chance? Suzume? Migration?
Not feeling confident in Mario or Ruby Gillman's chances
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There's no way Wish isn't getting nominated. It'll probably replace Elemental. And Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles might replace chicken run.
It’s widely accepted they are too snooty to nominate Mario (seeing as they were too good for The Lego Movie), it would be absurd for them to accept the 80s toy commercial pizza turtles unless it’s widely considered a masterpiece
Mario wasn’t even that good of a movie, of course it won’t get nominated
What if wish sucks and flops at the box office?
It couldn't possibly do any worse than Elemental. It's a Disney musical
I'm saying it will make about $500m for the box-office without looking up its budget.
Elemental looks better and is more humorous than Wish in every way, and that's a low bar to limbo.
Wish will get a nom, probably over Nimona
Suzume’s chances got annihilated when Crunchyroll picked it up for distribution, the academy doesn’t take anime-specific companies seriously. Every anime ever nominated was released by either GKIDS or Disney
GKIDS hasn’t done too well ever since Netflix threw their hat in the ring:
2019
>GKIDS submits Weathering With You
>not nominated
>NETFLIX submits I Lost My Body
>nominated
2020
>GKIDS submits On Gaku and Wolfwalkers
>On Gaku snubbed while Wolfwalkers barely nominated thanks to Apple
>NETFLIX submits Shaun the Sheep 2 and Over the Moon
>both nominated
2021
>GKIDS submits Belle
>not nominated
>NETFLIX submits The Mitchells vs The Machines
>nominated
2022
>GKIDS submits Inu-Oh
>not nominated
>NETFLIX submits Pinocchio and The Sea Beast
>both nominated and Pinocchio wins
With the exception of I Lost My Body seems like pretty consistently the more "safe" option is what got in, if they have enough valid options to push out the 'weird chinese shit' that doesn't have a real chance of winning that's what they're going to do
Ongaku was never an oscar player. It’s a great film for a small audience of weirdos.
The simpler explanation is that they aren’t crazy about anime with a few exceptions, and Gkids has been prioritizing anime this past half-decade.
Isn't Ghibli one of those exceptions?
I have my doubts that How Do You Live is going to be nominated. Ghibli is choosing not to promote its release beyond that one poster, much to Miyazaki's dismay, and I can't imagine it'll get US distribution until after the cut-off for the next Oscars.
There's almost no chance GKIDS is going to promote it (or lack thereof) the way Ghibli is doing it in Japan.
The timing of release is a legitimate concern but I assume they're working to get it out as quickly as they can
Yeah I thought a film had to have some kind of marketing campaign for eligibility
>much to Miyazaki's dismay
I assume it was his decision.
Apparently it wasn't
https://twitter.com/culturecrave/status/1674847812025208832?s=46&t=6OzvQeFVT85KKrpaScGPgQ
It was his decision. The man has nothing to lose. He can put his name on anything and the public will bite.
Mario is the only film with white family values so it's the best no matter what the pozzed academy says
>white
They are Italian
Mars Express
Mario movie will win it. The academy is so braindead they go with “most popular” to pick winners of animated films. I can assure you they 100% picked Pinocchio last year thinking it was Disney’s.
you’re a moron if you think that Guillermo del Toro’s name in the literal title, someone who has already won best picture and best director, doesn’t mean more to them than any affiliation to any animation studio
That’s what won the award, not the tenuous nonexistent connection to Disney
>The academy is so braindead they go with “most popular” to pick winners of animated films
Lego would have won if that was the case.
Never gonna happen but if Mario does somehow win it'll be the most hilarious thing ever. And it'll prove once and for all that the academy really doesn't give a shit when it comes to the animated category.
Spider-Man's in and probably winning it.
Elemental's a solid bet I think.
Wish is likely in if it's well received.
If Chicken Run's good it might get through.
I doubt Nimona - it's too rough looking for the Academy. No Dreamworks movies this year either I think.
I can't bet one way or the other on Mario movie - I doubt it'll get an Oscar nom but it'll probably get a Golden Globe nom for what it's worth.
Dunno which will be the foreign film tossed in there.
I'd have Nimona just edging Spider-Verse 2 out because that has the most compelling "Story" behind the scenes of how it was cancelled by Disney, the studio shut down and Annapurna made a huge bet on it to finish the movie where it was met with rave reviews when it was released. Hollywood loves an underdog.
>Hollywood loves an underdog.
Multiple Hollywood sources are already predicting Spiderverse will get a BP nomination, let alone best animated feature. So that's just delusional.
>Multiple Hollywood sources are already predicting Spiderverse will get a BP nomination
lol. lmao
Not saying it will, but that's the air right now. So there's no way anything is edging it out of the animated category at this point.
Giving it a nom would be enough of an underdog success story but there's no way it would beat Spidey and I'm willing to bet the Academy would be more likely to give noms to studios they plan on working with in the future to keep ties or make themselves look better. Nimona might've snuck into the GG noms but I don't think there's room for it. It might get some Annie's I suppose.
really Nimona’s chances lie with Netflix and how much they decide to push/promote it. Last year My Father’s Dragon was the first Cartoon Saloon movie to not get any major awards noms because Netflix buried it in their decision to push Pinocchio instead.
If they decide Aardman’s reputation gives them a better chance they will put their focus on Chicken Run getting a slot
The Sea Beast of all things got nominated as well and that was Netflix’s.
There have been a lot of oscar thread OPs over the years, and no one has ever been able to articulate why they care about the oscars. I don’t expect you to break that trend, but I’ll ask anyway. Even if you don’t believe in the oscars as taste makers, I’d understand following what they nominate because of distribution deals or likelihood of future animated projects from these studios being greenlit, but people don’t even talk about that. Is it just pure autism?
I like seeing Disney lose at things.
It’s pretty much in the same category as caring about box office, some people enjoy discussing the movie business and speculating on winners and losers as much (or more) than they care about the characters and stories in the films themselves.
When someone has a number crunching sort of brain and puts it to use on fantasy sports leagues the assumption is not automatically severe autism, this is essentially what you get when someone like that is more interested in cartoons than sports
That makes sense, I have seen a lot more discussion on prediction factors and weighing why something may get nominated or win. The past year or so has been a lot better than when the entire thread are the same types of posts complaining about how much they hate the academy despite talking about them all the time.
I’ll still call it autism because it’s the internet, but good work autists.
Is there even a single second of footage of the Chicken Run sequel?
Spiderverse.
Let's be real here. Across the Spiderverse will win for the simple fact that Miles is a mixed but mostly black man becoming the most iconic hero of all time
Across the Spiderverse is going to win unless the Miyazaki film is the best one he's ever made or Disney bribes the judges to nominate Wish.
It would be so very satisfying if Nimona got nominated while Elemental and Wish are snubbed.
Mario will absolutely be nominated
First three are guaranteed, plus Wish and some streaming/anime film. Nimona has no chance since nobody at the Academy cares about movies like that and Disney will do their damnest to prevent it from getting in the nominations.
Wasn't The Mitchells Vs. the Machines nominated two years ago? If so Nimona has a very good chance.
Maybe this movie:
Elemental shouldn’t be nominated, it got underwhelming reviews.
Why are people so confident that the Ghibli movie is getting nominated when it hasn't even come out yet. I haven't even seen anyone talk about it
Miyazaki's potentially actual final movie (this time) is a big deal, he's won before.
Not a lot of talk or detail about it because no one has seen it yet, the Japanese distributor has decided not to release any marketing material, and it hasn't gotten foreign release dates yet.
Unless it's somehow awful it would be considered a big snub if it doesn't make it in
Does Japan care a lot about a US awards show?